Bybit and FXStreet TradFi Report: Fed Decision Could Tigger a “Volatile Summer”

Bybit, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, has released a new Bybit x FXStreet TradFi Report analyzing the Federal Reserve’s (the Fed) July 30 meeting and its implications for global markets. The report highlights key technical levels and market expectations as traders position for potential monetary policy shifts.

The analysis marked a new key date: as the Fed is expected to maintain rates at 4.5% today, market focus has shifted to September 17, with current probability of a rate cut standing at 61%. The report identifies three critical factors driving September expectations: cooling inflation data, reduced tariff risks through recent trade agreements, and mounting political pressure for rate relief.

Highlights:

• Shifting focus onto the September meeting: Change is in the air with market participants see the September meeting as a key turning point, factoring in tamed inflation, tariff deals in the making, and Trump’s pressure on rate cuts.
• EUR/USD set up: Trading near oversold conditions with RSI (relative strength index) at 30, key support at 1.145 and resistance at 1.161. A September cut could fuel a fresh uptrend for EUR/USD.
• S&P 500: Hitting record highs with upside targets at 6,446 and 6,500 if rate cut expectations strengthen.

The report emphasizes that today’s meeting serves as a catalyst for market positioning rather than immediate policy change. Given the combined economic and geopolitical factors, even subtle shifts in the Fed’s tone could move September cut probabilities from 61% to above 80%, potentially triggering significant moves across currencies, equities, and risk assets.